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Trace: • week09_answer • assignmnets • quiz04_answer
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c:ms:2025:lecture_note_week_02 [2025/03/12 08:46] – created hkimscilc:ms:2025:lecture_note_week_02 [2025/03/12 08:53] (current) – hkimscil
Line 31: Line 31:
 q <- 1-p q <- 1-p
  
-set.seed(1001)+set.seed(101)
 el <- sample.int(2, 400000, replace=TRUE, prob=c(p, q)) el <- sample.int(2, 400000, replace=TRUE, prob=c(p, q))
 table(el) table(el)
 prop.table(table(el)) prop.table(table(el))
  
-n <- 10000 +n <- 16000 
-iter <- 1000+iter <- 10000
 els <- rep (NA, iter) els <- rep (NA, iter)
 prop <- rep (NA, iter) prop <- rep (NA, iter)
Line 44: Line 44:
   prop[i] <- table(els)[1]/(table(els)[1]+table(els)[2])   prop[i] <- table(els)[1]/(table(els)[1]+table(els)[2])
 } }
-els +# els 
-prop+head(prop)
 hist(prop) hist(prop)
  
Line 77: Line 77:
 p.lot <- 1/1000000 # lotto를 맞을 확률을 100만분의 1이라고 하면 p.lot <- 1/1000000 # lotto를 맞을 확률을 100만분의 1이라고 하면
 p.lot^21*7 # lotto를 연거퍼서 21일동안 맞을 확률의 일곱배배; not 지구나이 . . . .  p.lot^21*7 # lotto를 연거퍼서 21일동안 맞을 확률의 일곱배배; not 지구나이 . . . . 
 +
 </code> </code>
  
Line 84: Line 85:
 > p <- 0.55 # 민경욱 지지율 가정정 > p <- 0.55 # 민경욱 지지율 가정정
 > q <- 1-p > q <- 1-p
->  +> set.seed(101)
-> set.seed(1001)+
 > el <- sample.int(2, 400000, replace=TRUE, prob=c(p, q)) > el <- sample.int(2, 400000, replace=TRUE, prob=c(p, q))
 > table(el) > table(el)
 el el
      1      2       1      2 
-219618 180382 +219878 180122 
 > prop.table(table(el)) > prop.table(table(el))
 el el
        1        2         1        2 
-0.549045 0.450955  +0.549695 0.450305  
->  +> n <- 16000 
-> n <- 10000 +> iter <- 10000
-> iter <- 1000+
 > els <- rep (NA, iter) > els <- rep (NA, iter)
 > prop <- rep (NA, iter) > prop <- rep (NA, iter)
Line 104: Line 103:
 +   prop[i] <- table(els)[1]/(table(els)[1]+table(els)[2]) +   prop[i] <- table(els)[1]/(table(els)[1]+table(els)[2])
 + } + }
-> els +> # els 
-   [1] 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 +> head(prop) 
-  [35] 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 +[1] 0.5461250 0.5512500 0.5465000 0.5473125 0.5539375 0.5563125
-  [69] 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 +
- [103] 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 +
- [137] 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 +
- [171] 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 +
- [205] 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 +
- [239] 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 +
- [273] 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 +
- [307] 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 +
- [341] 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 +
- [375] 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 +
- [409] 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 +
- [443] 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 +
- [477] 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 +
- [511] 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 +
- [545] 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 +
- [579] 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 +
- [613] 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 +
- [647] 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 +
- [681] 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 +
- [715] 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 +
- [749] 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 +
- [783] 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 +
- [817] 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 +
- [851] 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 +
- [885] 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 +
- [919] 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 +
- [953] 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 +
- [987] 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 +
- [ reached getOption("max.print") -- omitted 9000 entries ] +
-> prop +
-   [1] 0.5528 0.5496 0.5470 0.5475 0.5522 0.5519 0.5442 0.5497 0.5461 +
-  [10] 0.5456 0.5419 0.5423 0.5439 0.5588 0.5459 0.5497 0.5402 0.5444 +
-  [19] 0.5637 0.5526 0.5459 0.5456 0.5567 0.5503 0.5450 0.5533 0.5501 +
-  [28] 0.5476 0.5556 0.5511 0.5548 0.5590 0.5463 0.5475 0.5551 0.5499 +
-  [37] 0.5419 0.5507 0.5485 0.5414 0.5508 0.5500 0.5445 0.5523 0.5548 +
-  [46] 0.5437 0.5517 0.5414 0.5535 0.5477 0.5613 0.5500 0.5507 0.5493 +
-  [55] 0.5543 0.5498 0.5501 0.5429 0.5490 0.5484 0.5446 0.5612 0.5464 +
-  [64] 0.5546 0.5470 0.5476 0.5491 0.5484 0.5509 0.5461 0.5412 0.5418 +
-  [73] 0.5511 0.5484 0.5481 0.5446 0.5490 0.5507 0.5432 0.5482 0.5532 +
-  [82] 0.5491 0.5573 0.5502 0.5488 0.5424 0.5520 0.5598 0.5480 0.5514 +
-  [91] 0.5550 0.5460 0.5516 0.5521 0.5567 0.5487 0.5524 0.5471 0.5537 +
- [100] 0.5524 0.5500 0.5503 0.5523 0.5528 0.5511 0.5505 0.5547 0.5447 +
- [109] 0.5539 0.5470 0.5531 0.5561 0.5588 0.5534 0.5474 0.5467 0.5455 +
- [118] 0.5452 0.5541 0.5429 0.5460 0.5483 0.5447 0.5506 0.5453 0.5551 +
- [127] 0.5465 0.5379 0.5520 0.5476 0.5476 0.5500 0.5542 0.5484 0.5613 +
- [136] 0.5519 0.5513 0.5417 0.5401 0.5501 0.5530 0.5429 0.5421 0.5479 +
- [145] 0.5421 0.5482 0.5479 0.5560 0.5522 0.5555 0.5580 0.5530 0.5444 +
- [154] 0.5541 0.5492 0.5464 0.5446 0.5485 0.5515 0.5437 0.5436 0.5508 +
- [163] 0.5460 0.5597 0.5462 0.5434 0.5463 0.5530 0.5479 0.5544 0.5529 +
- [172] 0.5449 0.5460 0.5517 0.5509 0.5499 0.5517 0.5496 0.5494 0.5521 +
- [181] 0.5493 0.5448 0.5442 0.5529 0.5506 0.5446 0.5496 0.5540 0.5467 +
- [190] 0.5584 0.5593 0.5471 0.5495 0.5536 0.5514 0.5459 0.5562 0.5485 +
- [199] 0.5425 0.5494 0.5466 0.5514 0.5417 0.5436 0.5482 0.5542 0.5450 +
- [208] 0.5505 0.5491 0.5479 0.5450 0.5566 0.5458 0.5542 0.5516 0.5406 +
- [217] 0.5491 0.5528 0.5510 0.5507 0.5578 0.5453 0.5481 0.5503 0.5523 +
- [226] 0.5484 0.5482 0.5432 0.5493 0.5551 0.5560 0.5484 0.5411 0.5515 +
- [235] 0.5504 0.5449 0.5463 0.5533 0.5507 0.5471 0.5419 0.5426 0.5471 +
- [244] 0.5505 0.5501 0.5553 0.5603 0.5529 0.5419 0.5412 0.5333 0.5470 +
- [253] 0.5575 0.5562 0.5504 0.5542 0.5585 0.5466 0.5463 0.5427 0.5517 +
- [262] 0.5565 0.5490 0.5481 0.5559 0.5556 0.5507 0.5358 0.5619 0.5431 +
- [271] 0.5480 0.5486 0.5483 0.5451 0.5467 0.5475 0.5459 0.5475 0.5428 +
- [280] 0.5411 0.5496 0.5476 0.5545 0.5472 0.5529 0.5544 0.5472 0.5540 +
- [289] 0.5465 0.5497 0.5475 0.5540 0.5486 0.5494 0.5496 0.5455 0.5572 +
- [298] 0.5478 0.5383 0.5432 0.5439 0.5465 0.5401 0.5508 0.5464 0.5507 +
- [307] 0.5459 0.5468 0.5457 0.5476 0.5494 0.5465 0.5517 0.5551 0.5491 +
- [316] 0.5462 0.5476 0.5466 0.5454 0.5518 0.5440 0.5486 0.5518 0.5372 +
- [325] 0.5508 0.5410 0.5443 0.5511 0.5466 0.5386 0.5429 0.5609 0.5477 +
- [334] 0.5484 0.5546 0.5478 0.5402 0.5484 0.5455 0.5470 0.5470 0.5484 +
- [343] 0.5573 0.5482 0.5438 0.5474 0.5447 0.5476 0.5608 0.5563 0.5460 +
- [352] 0.5485 0.5549 0.5512 0.5513 0.5586 0.5520 0.5469 0.5475 0.5529 +
- [361] 0.5470 0.5552 0.5564 0.5525 0.5481 0.5415 0.5458 0.5481 0.5536 +
- [370] 0.5432 0.5374 0.5572 0.5496 0.5492 0.5512 0.5429 0.5526 0.5465 +
- [379] 0.5536 0.5517 0.5470 0.5539 0.5461 0.5502 0.5552 0.5458 0.5480 +
- [388] 0.5569 0.5485 0.5438 0.5472 0.5470 0.5457 0.5462 0.5527 0.5447 +
- [397] 0.5458 0.5528 0.5503 0.5430 0.5394 0.5509 0.5519 0.5438 0.5510 +
- [406] 0.5447 0.5500 0.5430 0.5476 0.5417 0.5437 0.5470 0.5495 0.5444 +
- [415] 0.5464 0.5524 0.5491 0.5437 0.5534 0.5524 0.5481 0.5460 0.5439 +
- [424] 0.5560 0.5409 0.5486 0.5509 0.5520 0.5496 0.5531 0.5440 0.5563 +
- [433] 0.5455 0.5421 0.5427 0.5441 0.5508 0.5467 0.5468 0.5502 0.5584 +
- [442] 0.5511 0.5495 0.5468 0.5444 0.5359 0.5475 0.5475 0.5496 0.5470 +
- [451] 0.5492 0.5486 0.5638 0.5512 0.5479 0.5505 0.5484 0.5509 0.5521 +
- [460] 0.5494 0.5504 0.5503 0.5487 0.5435 0.5485 0.5397 0.5505 0.5527 +
- [469] 0.5447 0.5576 0.5565 0.5454 0.5431 0.5525 0.5369 0.5554 0.5511 +
- [478] 0.5394 0.5604 0.5464 0.5475 0.5466 0.5491 0.5511 0.5488 0.5445 +
- [487] 0.5536 0.5477 0.5485 0.5470 0.5493 0.5496 0.5550 0.5473 0.5444 +
- [496] 0.5557 0.5446 0.5526 0.5582 0.5505 0.5483 0.5449 0.5496 0.5555 +
- [505] 0.5505 0.5538 0.5535 0.5535 0.5441 0.5541 0.5475 0.5521 0.5484 +
- [514] 0.5467 0.5547 0.5479 0.5511 0.5511 0.5582 0.5503 0.5446 0.5499 +
- [523] 0.5423 0.5498 0.5507 0.5486 0.5536 0.5431 0.5454 0.5535 0.5507 +
- [532] 0.5474 0.5466 0.5433 0.5515 0.5419 0.5485 0.5493 0.5545 0.5524 +
- [541] 0.5456 0.5509 0.5531 0.5499 0.5404 0.5463 0.5497 0.5486 0.5459 +
- [550] 0.5449 0.5444 0.5433 0.5501 0.5369 0.5469 0.5518 0.5489 0.5439 +
- [559] 0.5540 0.5442 0.5544 0.5330 0.5467 0.5515 0.5488 0.5593 0.5434 +
- [568] 0.5513 0.5498 0.5498 0.5446 0.5532 0.5499 0.5472 0.5528 0.5487 +
- [577] 0.5535 0.5541 0.5497 0.5481 0.5498 0.5395 0.5489 0.5461 0.5442 +
- [586] 0.5552 0.5445 0.5539 0.5437 0.5482 0.5461 0.5535 0.5527 0.5497 +
- [595] 0.5490 0.5523 0.5556 0.5549 0.5456 0.5423 0.5588 0.5438 0.5427 +
- [604] 0.5485 0.5501 0.5494 0.5545 0.5521 0.5475 0.5472 0.5538 0.5426 +
- [613] 0.5446 0.5452 0.5514 0.5475 0.5401 0.5440 0.5532 0.5538 0.5492 +
- [622] 0.5567 0.5568 0.5521 0.5483 0.5427 0.5449 0.5508 0.5384 0.5475 +
- [631] 0.5518 0.5495 0.5515 0.5450 0.5473 0.5429 0.5516 0.5513 0.5485 +
- [640] 0.5578 0.5499 0.5572 0.5405 0.5505 0.5539 0.5468 0.5569 0.5579 +
- [649] 0.5463 0.5531 0.5435 0.5494 0.5512 0.5425 0.5481 0.5511 0.5519 +
- [658] 0.5438 0.5529 0.5539 0.5413 0.5515 0.5618 0.5530 0.5451 0.5542 +
- [667] 0.5548 0.5459 0.5486 0.5517 0.5590 0.5432 0.5465 0.5589 0.5454 +
- [676] 0.5492 0.5512 0.5513 0.5488 0.5432 0.5477 0.5441 0.5506 0.5529 +
- [685] 0.5518 0.5506 0.5526 0.5484 0.5410 0.5537 0.5445 0.5535 0.5513 +
- [694] 0.5501 0.5520 0.5432 0.5540 0.5458 0.5533 0.5481 0.5533 0.5476 +
- [703] 0.5383 0.5363 0.5444 0.5512 0.5572 0.5452 0.5388 0.5513 0.5504 +
- [712] 0.5489 0.5524 0.5479 0.5588 0.5474 0.5408 0.5487 0.5514 0.5530 +
- [721] 0.5572 0.5524 0.5503 0.5532 0.5424 0.5565 0.5537 0.5437 0.5455 +
- [730] 0.5398 0.5512 0.5487 0.5419 0.5514 0.5615 0.5523 0.5489 0.5468 +
- [739] 0.5438 0.5414 0.5495 0.5482 0.5426 0.5473 0.5511 0.5401 0.5562 +
- [748] 0.5505 0.5499 0.5488 0.5404 0.5472 0.5488 0.5504 0.5551 0.5462 +
- [757] 0.5578 0.5488 0.5567 0.5488 0.5524 0.5547 0.5538 0.5559 0.5440 +
- [766] 0.5388 0.5448 0.5436 0.5408 0.5509 0.5520 0.5422 0.5433 0.5463 +
- [775] 0.5521 0.5439 0.5434 0.5497 0.5427 0.5480 0.5506 0.5499 0.5572 +
- [784] 0.5572 0.5497 0.5522 0.5461 0.5431 0.5494 0.5498 0.5533 0.5450 +
- [793] 0.5512 0.5521 0.5491 0.5516 0.5468 0.5491 0.5428 0.5529 0.5487 +
- [802] 0.5407 0.5519 0.5464 0.5463 0.5547 0.5480 0.5426 0.5489 0.5476 +
- [811] 0.5488 0.5453 0.5509 0.5455 0.5402 0.5462 0.5425 0.5532 0.5529 +
- [820] 0.5474 0.5513 0.5430 0.5481 0.5470 0.5449 0.5434 0.5396 0.5402 +
- [829] 0.5575 0.5474 0.5550 0.5445 0.5527 0.5507 0.5470 0.5445 0.5519 +
- [838] 0.5493 0.5491 0.5473 0.5551 0.5515 0.5516 0.5579 0.5608 0.5480 +
- [847] 0.5539 0.5491 0.5523 0.5527 0.5422 0.5414 0.5492 0.5479 0.5441 +
- [856] 0.5497 0.5521 0.5572 0.5511 0.5477 0.5386 0.5545 0.5544 0.5504 +
- [865] 0.5490 0.5414 0.5515 0.5431 0.5479 0.5485 0.5406 0.5563 0.5492 +
- [874] 0.5564 0.5432 0.5504 0.5412 0.5496 0.5476 0.5458 0.5477 0.5505 +
- [883] 0.5550 0.5508 0.5471 0.5533 0.5555 0.5446 0.5519 0.5454 0.5450 +
- [892] 0.5553 0.5515 0.5559 0.5432 0.5392 0.5556 0.5437 0.5486 0.5530 +
- [901] 0.5537 0.5436 0.5443 0.5520 0.5509 0.5528 0.5539 0.5563 0.5439 +
- [910] 0.5565 0.5415 0.5539 0.5474 0.5485 0.5578 0.5473 0.5524 0.5475 +
- [919] 0.5468 0.5424 0.5539 0.5400 0.5372 0.5507 0.5374 0.5595 0.5484 +
- [928] 0.5466 0.5457 0.5495 0.5490 0.5455 0.5411 0.5393 0.5550 0.5450 +
- [937] 0.5614 0.5449 0.5460 0.5459 0.5546 0.5452 0.5459 0.5471 0.5488 +
- [946] 0.5532 0.5412 0.5480 0.5522 0.5489 0.5508 0.5480 0.5521 0.5465 +
- [955] 0.5511 0.5440 0.5533 0.5435 0.5500 0.5481 0.5488 0.5519 0.5506 +
- [964] 0.5453 0.5458 0.5466 0.5375 0.5546 0.5509 0.5549 0.5465 0.5457 +
- [973] 0.5533 0.5496 0.5473 0.5437 0.5461 0.5393 0.5488 0.5453 0.5464 +
- [982] 0.5435 0.5439 0.5438 0.5472 0.5436 0.5403 0.5454 0.5434 0.5473 +
- [991] 0.5475 0.5497 0.5484 0.5533 0.5515 0.5534 0.5519 0.5581 0.5487 +
-[1000] 0.5558+
 > hist(prop) > hist(prop)
->  
->  
 > pre.vote <- 0.430 > pre.vote <- 0.430
 > m.emp <- mean(prop) > m.emp <- mean(prop)
 > m.theo <- p > m.theo <- p
 > m.emp  > m.emp 
-[1] 0.5489203+[1] 0.5497185
 > m.theo > m.theo
 [1] 0.55 [1] 0.55
->  
 > se.emp <- sd(prop) > se.emp <- sd(prop)
 > se.theo <- sqrt((p*q)/n) > se.theo <- sqrt((p*q)/n)
 > se.emp > se.emp
-[1] 0.0048724+[1] 0.003837126
 > se.theo > se.theo
-[1] 0.004974937 +[1] 0.003933033
->  +
-> +
 > m.theo > m.theo
 [1] 0.55 [1] 0.55
Line 275: Line 127:
 [1] 0.12 [1] 0.12
 > se.theo > se.theo
-[1] 0.004974937 +[1] 0.003933033
-> # install.packages("Rmpfr") +
-> +
 > library(Rmpfr) > library(Rmpfr)
 > .N <- function(.) mpfr(., precBits = 100) > .N <- function(.) mpfr(., precBits = 100)
->  
 > zval <- (m.theo-pre.vote)/se.theo > zval <- (m.theo-pre.vote)/se.theo
 > zval > zval
-[1] 24.12091+[1] 30.5108
 > p.val <- pnorm(zval, lower.tail = F) > p.val <- pnorm(zval, lower.tail = F)
 > p.val # limit in 1e-217  > p.val # limit in 1e-217 
-[1] 7.54328e-129 +[1] 9.368078e-205
-> +
 > p.lot <- 1/1000000 # lotto를 맞을 확률을 100만분의 1이라고 하면 > p.lot <- 1/1000000 # lotto를 맞을 확률을 100만분의 1이라고 하면
 > p.lot^21*7 # lotto를 연거퍼서 21일동안 맞을 확률의 일곱배배; not 지구나이 . . . .  > p.lot^21*7 # lotto를 연거퍼서 21일동안 맞을 확률의 일곱배배; not 지구나이 . . . . 
Line 294: Line 142:
 </code> </code>
  
-{{:c:ms:2025:pasted:20250312-084605.png}}+{{:c:ms:2025:pasted:20250312-085246.png}}
c/ms/2025/lecture_note_week_02.1741736766.txt.gz · Last modified: 2025/03/12 08:46 by hkimscil
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